If you are looking for the date of Neutron's first launch, the short answer is 2027, with no month attached. On 14 October Rocket Lab said the debut of its new rocket would slip "as the team continues development and incorporation of process improvements". Chief executive Peter Beck said more. According to The Register, voids were found between the carbon-fibre layers of the first-stage tank dome. They do not necessarily mean the dome would fail in flight, but they cut the safety margin, so the design had to be reworked. Beck expects testing of the problem parts to finish by the end of the first quarter of 2027. Only then will he set a new date.
It is not the tank's first problem. In January a first-stage tank ruptured during a hydrostatic pressure test, StockTitan recalls.
How the date has moved
When Neutron was unveiled in 2021, the first flight was pencilled in for 2024. It then became 2025, then 2026, and now 2027, The Register notes. As recently as May the company was aiming for the final quarter of 2026, Spaceflight Now reported.
| When the target was set | First flight |
|---|---|
| 2021 (at unveiling) | 2024 |
| Later | 2025, then 2026 |
| May 2026 | Final quarter of 2026 |
| October 2026 | 2027, no month |
Why it matters
Neutron is Rocket Lab's answer to SpaceX's Falcon 9: a rocket with a reusable first stage that can put up to 13,000 kg into low Earth orbit, The Register says. Customers are waiting. In May an unnamed customer bought five Neutron flights and three on Electron, the largest order in the company's history. The US Air Force Research Laboratory wants to use Neutron to test cargo delivery from space. The market is waiting too: according to The Register, Rocket Lab shares fell from about $63 to about $53 in after-hours trading on the news.
When it could realistically fly
This is speculation, but with reasons. In August Rocket Lab planned to deliver Neutron to its LC-3 pad at Wallops, Virginia, in the final quarter of 2026, about a quarter after the key tests. Apply the same rhythm and the rocket reaches the pad in the second quarter of 2027. Then come static fires and a wet dress rehearsal. The earliest realistic date is the end of the second quarter of 2027, and the most likely is the third. Each of the last three targets slipped by about a year, though, so 2028 cannot be ruled out. My bet is the second half of 2027. The next signals will come from the company's quarterly results, above all the ones after the first quarter of 2027, when Beck has promised a new date.
Who pays
| Who pays | To whom | For what | How much | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unnamed customer | Rocket Lab | 5 Neutron and 3 Electron launches | Not disclosed (above the previous $190m record) | Spaceflight Now |
| US Air Force Research Laboratory and Space Force | Rocket Lab | Rocket Cargo mission on Neutron | $54.2m budgeted plus $4m | Air & Space Forces |
| Kepler Communications | Rocket Lab | Neutron launch, no earlier than 2028 | Not disclosed | StockTitan |
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.